Maersk Lowers 2025 Container Market Forecast Amid Uncertainty

Danish shipping giant Maersk has revised its global container market outlook for 2025, citing mounting macroeconomic and geopolitical pressures.

The company’s updated forecast now predicts market growth ranging from a 1% decline to a 4% increase—down from the 4% rise projected earlier this year.

Maersk, led by CEO Vincent Clerc, explained that global container demand for the remainder of the year remains “highly uncertain, shaped by a rapidly evolving trade policy landscape and increasing recession risks in the United States.”

The company anticipates some growth in the second quarter as shippers may accelerate orders to capitalize on a 90-day suspension of reciprocal tariffs, allowing them to replenish inventories.

However, Maersk added that demand later in the year is difficult to gauge: “In the latter part of the year, there is, on the one hand, a growing risk that demand could contract, and on the other the possibility that trade rebounds if tariffs are rolled back.”

While Maersk has not cut any transpacific services so far this year, competitor Hapag-Lloyd reported last month that 30% of shipments from China to the US have been cancelled.

Maersk warned that trade policy uncertainty and the possibility of escalating tensions “cast a shadow” over the US economic outlook.

“If Chinese exporters redirect lost US exports to other markets, a protectionist backlash could follow, risking a broader trade war,” the company stated, also forecasting ongoing disruption in the Red Sea region.

HSBC reported that global bookings last week dropped 25% compared to the previous week, though they improved 15% year-over-year after four weeks of decline. Bookings from China to the US were down 27%, although the decline showed signs of easing. HSBC cautioned that weekly volumes could fluctuate due to blanked sailings and shifting tariff policies but noted that liner company share prices have dipped by just 3% on average since ‘Liberation Day.’

Sea-Intelligence noted that although the volume downturn from China hasn’t yet fully impacted US ports, this is expected to change soon as blank sailings and reduced bookings begin to take effect.

“Container volume data for Asian exports in April will not be available before early June, but indications from carriers and forwarders suggest a Chinese booking downfall in the -30% to -50% range, much greater than the 4%-5% reduction in capacity,” Sea-Intelligence reported. While some of the shortfall may be offset by other Asian markets, it’s unlikely to fully make up for China’s losses, potentially leading to additional blank sailings and a drop in spot rates.

The Port of Los Angeles expects business to fall by 35% year-over-year, a figure that aligns with similar reports from carriers like Hapag-Lloyd and Evergreen, as well as forwarders including Kuehne+Nagel and Flexport, who are seeing booking drops of 30-50% out of China.

Soren Toft, CEO of MSC, acknowledged the challenging outlook, stating in a recent social media post, “The geopolitical situation and tariff implications make 2025 more unpredictable than usual.”