Maersk Raises 2026 Outlook on Strong Container Demand

A.P. Moller-Maersk has significantly increased its financial forecast for 2026 after stronger-than-anticipated demand in the global container shipping market and continued strength in spot freight rates, particularly on routes originating from the Far East.

The Danish shipping company now expects underlying EBITDA for the year to reach between $8 billion and $10 billion, a substantial increase from its previous guidance of $4.5 billion to $7 billion. It has also lifted its underlying EBIT forecast to between $2 billion and $4 billion, compared with its earlier outlook of a $1.5 billion loss to a $1 billion profit.

Maersk also revised its free cash flow expectations, saying it now anticipates free cash flow of at least negative $1.5 billion, improving on its previous projection of at least negative $3 billion.

According to the company, the stronger financial outlook is being driven by resilient container shipping demand and sustained growth in spot freight rates. Maersk has also increased its forecast for global container market volume growth in 2026 to around 4%, up from its earlier estimate of 2% to 4%.

The improved guidance comes as the container shipping industry continues to benefit from ongoing supply chain disruptions, which have kept freight rates elevated on key east-west trade routes. Although geopolitical tensions have created operational challenges for both carriers and cargo owners, they have also reduced available vessel capacity by forcing longer voyages and disrupting established shipping networks, providing continued support for freight prices.

Last week, Allianz Commercial said the global shipping sector has entered a period of increased geopolitical uncertainty. The insurer warned that disruptions in regions such as the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz are becoming long-term structural issues rather than short-lived events, leading to greater market volatility and more resilient, but costlier, supply chains.

Maersk remains focused on mitigating the impact of instability in the Middle East. In its latest operational update, the company said it continues to limit bookings to several Gulf destinations, redirect cargo through alternative transshipment hubs and inland transport routes, and apply emergency freight surcharges to help offset the added costs of storage, vessel charters, and rerouting.

The company is expected to release its second-quarter financial results on August 13.