Panama Canal Traffic Surges Amid Hormuz Tensions

Ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is contributing to a major increase in Panama Canal traffic, with the waterway now operating close to full capacity as U.S. energy exports to Asia continue to rise.

New data from BIMCO shows average daily canal transits have increased by 8% year-on-year during 2026, reaching around 38 vessels per day, with tanker traffic driving much of the growth.

“Transits have been especially high during the past five weeks, rising 16% year-on-year, as US energy exports to the Pacific jumped,” said Filipe Gouveia, shipping analysis manager at BIMCO.

The escalation of tensions involving Iran and reduced shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz have tightened global energy supplies and pushed commodity prices higher. As a result, buyers in Asia and along the west coast of the Americas have increasingly turned to the U.S. Gulf for cargoes.

That shift has intensified demand for Panama Canal transit slots, particularly among tanker operators.

The daily maximum capacity of the Panama Canal is around 36 to 40 transits, meaning it is currently operating close to maximum capacity,” Gouveia said.

According to BIMCO, waiting times have also climbed sharply, increasing 50% compared to last year. While many transit slots are booked in advance, others are allocated through daily auctions for short-notice passages. The recent surge in demand has pushed auction prices significantly higher and contributed to average waiting times rising to around 47 hours.

Container ships, LPG carriers, oil tankers, and bulk carriers together account for approximately 77% of all canal traffic. Container lines generally secure slots earlier because of fixed schedules, while tanker and bulk operators often compete for space closer to departure dates.

As delays and transit costs continue to rise, some shipping companies are considering alternative routes around the Cape of Good Hope or Cape Horn, despite the longer sailing distances and increased fuel consumption involved.

BIMCO also warned that weather conditions could create additional challenges later this year. The possible return of the El Niño climate pattern between May and July could reduce rainfall feeding Gatun Lake, the canal’s main freshwater reservoir. During the severe El Niño event of late 2023 and early 2024, Panama Canal traffic was cut to as few as 22 ships per day, while draft restrictions were also introduced.

In comments provided to media outlets, the Panama Canal Authority attempted to ease concerns about growing congestion, emphasizing that million-dollar auction prices remain “unique exceptions, not the rule.” A canal spokesperson said average auction prices between October 2025 and February 2026 were roughly $130,000. However, early figures for March and April indicated averages closer to $385,000 due to what the authority described as “temporary market dynamics caused by geopolitical developments.”

The authority also noted that approximately 85% of vessels transit the canal using standard reservation systems or long-term booking allocations, with delays mainly affecting ships arriving without pre-arranged slots.

Even though the Panama Canal records both, vessels with and without a reservation, it is important to separate them to avoid the impression of a congestion,” the spokesperson said.

Separately, the Panama Canal Authority recently appointed Ilya Espino de Marotta as administrator for the 2026-2033 term, making her the first woman to lead the canal.